{"id":10276,"date":"2018-07-10T11:50:30","date_gmt":"2018-07-10T17:50:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.virtuance.com\/?p=10276"},"modified":"2018-07-10T12:18:52","modified_gmt":"2018-07-10T18:18:52","slug":"are-we-housing-bubble-depends-inman","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.virtuance.com\/member\/blog\/are-we-housing-bubble-depends-inman\/","title":{"rendered":"Are we in a housing bubble? It depends on who you ask"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Despite declines in 3 key housing market indicators, most real estate economists say nay to the bubble \u2014 but one argues an ‘apartment bubble’ is gaining momentum<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n
By Patrick Kearns | Source Inman<\/a><\/span><\/div>\n
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It\u2019s a question that resurfaces every economic cycle, creeping into the psyche of the real estate industry like English Ivy along the edges of a home. One financial analyst believes it\u2019s happening, but real estate economists disagree.<\/p>\n

Are we in a housing bubble?<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/a>\"are_we_in_housing_bubble_virtuance\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Dave Kranzler, a co-manager of a precious metals and mining stock investment fund in Denver,\u00a0wrote on his website Investment Research Dynamics<\/a>\u00a0earlier this week that he believes an even bigger housing bubble than 2008 is set to burst.<\/p>\n

\u201cHousing is dropping and it\u2019s demand-driven, not supply-driven \u2014 all three housing market reports released two weeks ago showed industry deterioration,\u201d Kranzler wrote in the July 2 post, citing declines in\u00a0homebuilder sentiment<\/a>,\u00a0new construction permits<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0existing home sales<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In fact, the homebuilder sentiment index\u00a0suffered its fourth decline in May since hitting its peak in December while falling 10 points below Wall Street analysts\u2019 predictions. Permits for new construction, meanwhile,\u00a0fell 4.6 percent, according to the most recent housing starts data released Tuesday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.<\/p>\n

And existing home sales fell for the second straight month while the seasonally adjusted annualized rate fell below Wall Street analysts\u2019 estimates, according to Kranzler. In short, he isn\u2019t buying spin that the decline is due to low inventory.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe month\u2019s supply for May increased from April and, at 4.1 months, is above the average month\u2019s supply for the trailing 12 months,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s also above the average month’s supply number for all of 2017. If low inventory is holding back pent-up demand, then May sales should have soared, especially given that May is historically one of the best months seasonally for home sales.\u201d<\/p>\n

A number of economists, however, disagreed when asked if a housing bubble is afoot.<\/p>\n

Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, doesn\u2019t believe a housing bubble exists, but he does worry some market issues persist.<\/p>\n

\u201cHome prices are clearly rising too fast, they have outpaced people\u2019s income growth for the past five years,\u201d he said. \u201cIs it a bubble in terms of potential to go down? The answer is no, because the fundamental supporting factors of today\u2019s housing market versus what happened 10 years ago are drastically different.\u201d<\/p>\n

The distinction between today\u2019s market and the pre-crash housing market, he said, are the tighter underwriting standards created in the aftermath of the 2008 housing crises and the current dearth of new residential construction.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is a massive housing shortage,\u201d Yun said. \u201cIt\u2019s fundamentally different in terms of both demand and supply.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Read the full article here.<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Despite declines in 3 key housing market indicators, most real estate economists say nay to the bubble \u2014 but one argues an ‘apartment bubble’ is gaining momentum By Patrick Kearns | Source Inman It\u2019s a question that resurfaces every economic cycle, creeping into the psyche of the real estate industry like English Ivy along the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14503,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[4,47],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.virtuance.com\/member\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10276"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.virtuance.com\/member\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.virtuance.com\/member\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.virtuance.com\/member\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14503"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.virtuance.com\/member\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10276"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/staging.virtuance.com\/member\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10276\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10294,"href":"https:\/\/staging.virtuance.com\/member\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10276\/revisions\/10294"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.virtuance.com\/member\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10276"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.virtuance.com\/member\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10276"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.virtuance.com\/member\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10276"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}